Saturday 22 December 2018

Aerys, Tywin and a Bride for Rhaegar

We know Aerys II Targaryen earned his title of "The Mad King". He thought everyone was out to get him. But just because your paranoid, doesn't mean you're wrong.

The friendship between Aerys and his Hand of the King, Tywin Lannister started in King's Landing when both were just boys,


Aerys and Tywin had known each other since childhood. As a boy, Tywin Lannister had served as a royal page at King's Landing. He and Prince Aerys, together with a younger page, the prince's cousin Steffon Baratheon of Storm's End, had become inseparable. During the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the three friends had fought together, Tywin as a new-made knight, Steffon and Prince Aerys as squires.    The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II


When Aerys became king, he declared he wished to be the greatest king in the history of the Seven Kingdoms. His first wise act was to make some major changes to his small council,


His father's court had been made up largely of older, seasoned men, many of whom had also served during the reign of King Aegon V. Aerys II dismissed them one and all, replacing them with lords of his own generation. Most notably, he retired the aged and exceedingly cautious Hand, Edgar Sloane, and named in his place Ser Tywin Lannister, the heir to Casterly Rock. At twenty years of age, Ser Tywin thus became the youngest Hand in the history of the Seven Kingdoms. 
Many maesters to this day insist that his appointment was the wisest thing that "Aerys the Wise" ever did.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

With Tywin as Hand, trade flourished in the Seven Kingdoms.

Tywin won the approbation of many great lords by repealing what remained of the laws Aegon V had enacted to curb their powers. Tywin reduced tariffs and taxes on shipping going in and out of the cities of King's Landing, Lannisport, and Oldtown, winning the support of many wealthy merchants. Tywin built new roads and repaired old ones, held many splendid tournaments about the realm to the delight of knights and commons both, cultivated trade with the Free Cities, and sternly punished bakers found guilty of adding sawdust to their bread and butchers selling horsemeat as beef.   The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

He focused on trade and infrastructure. In the Volantene sense, Tywin was an Elephant.

By the time they turned to history, Young Griff was growing restive. "We were discussing the history of Volantis," Haldon said to him. "Can you tell Yollo the difference between a tiger and an elephant?"
"Volantis is the oldest of the Nine Free Cities, first daughter of Valyria," the lad replied, in a bored tone. "After the Doom it pleased the Volantenes to consider themselves the heirs of the Freehold and rightful rulers of the world, but they were divided as to how dominion might best be achieved. The Old Blood favored the sword, while the merchants and moneylenders advocated trade. As they contended for rule of the city, the factions became known as the tigers and elephants, respectively.  A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion IV


Aerys's  jealousy of Tywin is well known.  Where Tywin was a man of action, Aerys was full of grand schemes for the realm that never panned out.


His Grace was full of grand schemes as well. Not long after his coronation, he announced his intent to conquer the Stepstones and make them a part of his realm for all time. In 264 AC, a visit to King's Landing by Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell awakened his interest in the North, and he hatched a plan to build a new Wall a hundred leagues north of the existing one and claim all the lands between. In 265 AC, offended by "the stink of King's Landing," he spoke of building a "white city" entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush. In 267 AC, after a dispute with the Iron Bank of Braavos regarding certain monies borrowed by his father, he announced that he would build the largest war fleet in the history of the world "to bring the Titan to his knees." In 270 AC, during a visit to Sunspear, he told the Princess of Dorne that he would "make the Dornish deserts bloom" by digging a great underground canal beneath the mountains to bring water down from the rainwood.
None of these grandiose plans ever came to fruition; most, indeed, were forgotten within a moon's turn, for Aerys II seemed to grow bored with his royal enthusiasms as quickly as he did his royal paramours
And yet the Seven Kingdoms prospered greatly during the first decade of his reign, for the King's Hand was all that the king himself was not—diligent, decisive, tireless, fiercely intelligent, just, and stern. "The gods made and shaped this man to rule," Grand Maester Pycelle wrote of Tywin Lannister in a letter to the Citadel after serving with him on the small council for two years.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

Aerys real jealousy of Tywin started with Joanna.

"As you command." The white knight chose his words with care. "Prince Aerys … as a youth, he was taken with a certain lady of Casterly Rock, a cousin of Tywin Lannister. When she and Tywin wed, your father drank too much wine at the wedding feast and was heard to say that it was a great pity that the lord's right to the first night had been abolished. A drunken jape, no more, but Tywin Lannister was not a man to forget such words, or the … the liberties your father took during the bedding." His face reddened. "I have said too much, Your Grace. I—"   A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys VII


Aerys showed this jealousy in many ways,

Aerys had Ser Ilyn Payne's tongue torn out just for boasting that it was the Hand who truly ruled the Seven Kingdoms.  A Storm of Swords - Jaime II

He began to go against any advice Tywin offered,

Where previously Aerys had sided with Tywin Lannister on most matters of substance, now the two men began to disagree. During a trade war between the Free Cities of Myr and Tyrosh on the one hand and Volantis on the other, Lord Tywin advocated a policy of neutrality; King Aerys saw more advantage in providing gold and arms to the Volantenes. When Lord Tywin adjudicated a border dispute between House Blackwood and House Bracken in favor of the Blackwoods, His Grace overruled him and gave the disputed mill to Lord Bracken.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

He started to undo the work Tywin had done, sometimes blaming Tywin for these changes,

Over his Hand's strenuous objections, the king doubled the port fees at King's Landing and Oldtown, and tripled them for Lannisport and the realm's other ports and harbors. When a delegation of small lords and rich merchants came before the Iron Throne to complain, however, Aerys blamed the Hand for the exactions, saying, "Lord Tywin shits gold, but of late he has been constipated and had to find some other way to fill our coffers." Whereupon His Grace restored port fees and tariffs to their previous levels, earning much acclaim for himself and leaving Tywin Lannister the opprobrium.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

After the War of the Ninepenny Kings and the tragedy of Summerhall, Tywin had helped  Aerys "heal" the realm. For his efforts, he recieved nothing but scorn and jealousy from his King.

At the great Anniversary Tourney of 272 AC, held to commemorate Aerys's tenth year upon the Iron Throne, Joanna Lannister brought her six-year-old twins Jaime and Cersei from Casterly Rock to present before the court. The king (very much in his cups) asked her if giving suck to them had "ruined your breasts, which were so high and proud." The question greatly amused Lord Tywin's rivals, who were always pleased to see the Hand slighted or made mock of, but Lady Joanna was humiliated. Tywin Lannister attempted to return his chain of office the next morning, but the king refused to accept his resignation.
Aerys II could, of course, have dismissed Tywin Lannister at any time and named his own man as Hand of the King, but instead, for whatever reason, the king chose to keep his boyhood friend close by him, laboring on his behalf, even as he began to undermine him in ways both great and small. Slights and gibes became ever more numerous; courtiers hoping for advancement soon learned that the quickest way to catch the king's eye was by making mock of his solemn, humorless Hand. Yet through all this, Tywin Lannister suffered in silence.
In 273 AC, however, Lady Joanna was taken to childbed once again at Casterly Rock, where she died delivering Lord Tywin's second son. Tyrion, as the babe was named, was a malformed, dwarfish babe born with stunted legs, an oversized head, and mismatched, demonic eyes (some reports also suggested he had a tail, which was lopped off at his lord father's command). Lord Tywin's Doom, the smallfolk called this ill-made creature, and Lord Tywin's Bane. Upon hearing of his birth, King Aerys infamously said, "The gods cannot abide such arrogance. They have plucked a fair flower from his hand and given him a monster in her place, to teach him some humility at last."  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings:
Aerys II

When Tywin heard this, he was at Casterly Rock in mourning but the memory of his father being openly mocked  and taken advatage of by his bannermen must have been in his mind.  Aerys, his childhood friend. A squire who he himself had knighted was making mock of him.

 Tywin seems a hard man to you, I know, but he is no harder than he's had to be. Our own father was gentle and amiable, but so weak his bannermen mocked him in their cups. Some saw fit to defy him openly. Other lords borrowed our gold and never troubled to repay it. At court they japed of toothless lions. Even his mistress stole from him. A woman scarcely one step above a whore, and she helped herself to my mother's jewels! It fell to Tywin to restore House Lannister to its proper place. Just as it fell to him to rule this realm, when he was no more than twenty. He bore that heavy burden for twenty years, and all it earned him was a mad king's envy. Instead of the honor he deserved, he was made to suffer slights beyond count, yet he gave the Seven Kingdoms peace, plenty, and justice. He is a just man. You would be wise to trust him."  A Feast for Crows - Cersei V

So why did Tywin stay on as hand?

 When she was just a little girl, her father had promised her that she would marry Rhaegar. She could not have been more than six or seven. "Never speak of it, child," he had told her, smiling his secret smile that only Cersei ever saw. "Not until His Grace agrees to the betrothal. It must remain our secret for now." And so it had, though once she had drawn a picture of herself flying behind Rhaegar on a dragon, her arms wrapped tight about his chest. When Jaime had discovered it she told him it was Queen Alysanne and King Jaehaerys.
She was ten when she finally saw her prince in the flesh, at the tourney her lord father had thrown to welcome King Aerys to the west. Viewing stands had been raised beneath the walls of Lannisport, and the cheers of the smallfolk had echoed off Casterly Rock like rolling thunder. They cheered Father twice as loudly as they cheered the king, the queen recalled, but only half as loudly as they cheered Prince Rhaegar.  A Feast for Crows - Cersei V

Even with all his gold, Tywin could never be King. In fact i dont think he wanted to be. But he could be Father to a Queen and Grandfather to a king.

Cersei recalls her father telling her she is to be betrothed to Rhaegar and will one day become queen.  Tywin must have been pretty certain of this to tell Cersei about it. Did Tywin expect this as a"natural" betrothal because he was Hand of the King? Or did he have assurances from Aerys that this would happen?

Cersei had been so happy that day. Elsewise she would never have dared visit the tent of Maggy the Frog. She had only done it to show Jeyne and Melara that the lioness fears nothing. I was going to be a queen. Why should a queen be afraid of some hideous old woman? The memory of that foretelling still made her flesh crawl a lifetime later. Jeyne ran shrieking from the tent in fear, the queen remembered, but Melara stayed and so did I. We let her taste our blood, and laughed at her stupid prophecies. None of them made the least bit of sense. She was going to be Prince Rhaegar's wife, no matter what the woman said. Her father had promised it, and Tywin Lannister's word was gold. A Feast for Crows - Cersei V

In preperation for this betrothal, Tywin held a tourney to honor the birth of Prince Viserys. Many viewed the Tourney as a reconcilliation between King and Hand.

Her laughter died at tourney's end. There had been no final feast, no toasts to celebrate her betrothal to Prince Rhaegar. Only cold silences and chilly looks between the king and her father. Later, when Aerys and his son and all his gallant knights had departed for King's Landing, the girl had gone to her aunt in tears, not understanding. "Your father proposed the match," Lady Genna told her, "but Aerys refused to hear of it. 'You are my most able servant, Tywin,' the king said, 'but a man does not marry his heir to his servant's daughter.' A Feast for Crows - Cersei V

Instead Aerys wanted Rhaegar to be married to someone more "appropriate".

When Aerys was captured and held at Duskendale, Tywin saw a way to bypass the King's rejection and wed Cersei to Rhaegar.


Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.  
Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne? The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II


 Aerys was rescued by ser Barristan Selmy, but he was suspicious that Tywin wanted him dead so Rhaegar could ascend the throne and take Cercei as queen.


Once safely returned to King's Landing, His Grace refused to leave the Red Keep for any cause and remained a virtual prisoner in his own castle for the next four years, during which time he grew ever more wary of those around him, Tywin Lannister in particular. His suspicions extended even to his own son and heir. Prince Rhaegar, he was convinced, had conspired with Tywin Lannister to have him slain at Duskendale. They had planned to storm the town walls so that Lord Darklyn would put him to death, opening the way for Rhaegar to mount the Iron Throne and marry Lord Tywin's daughter.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II


Aerys' Paranoia now extended to Tywin conspiring with his son and heir Rhaegar.

Determined to prevent that from happening, King Aerys turned to another friend of his childhood, summoning Steffon Baratheon from Storm's End and naming him to the small council.



The king—the old king, Aerys II Targaryen, who had not been quite so mad in those days—had sent his lordship to seek a bride for Prince Rhaegar, who had no sisters to wed.  A Clash of Kings - Prologue

Aerys wish to marry Rhaegar to a Volantene bride has many implications if successful, for many people including Tywin.  It would end any conspiracy between Tywin and Rhaegar.
 Steffon Baratheon being chosen to find this bride looked to many, as a sign that Tywin's time as Hand was over and Steffon would be his replacement.


 In 278 AC, the king sent Lord Steffon across the narrow sea on a mission to Old Volantis, to seek a suitable bride for Prince Rhaegar, "a maid of noble birth from an old Valyrian bloodline." That His Grace entrusted this task to the Lord of Storm's End rather than his Hand, or Rhaegar himself, speaks volumes. The rumors were rife that Aerys meant to make Lord Steffon his new Hand upon the successful completion of this mission, that Tywin Lannister was about to be removed from office, arrested, and tried for high treason. And there was many a lord who took delight in that prospect.   The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II




If  the old blood of Volantis married the Iron Throne it(Volantis) would have the power to challenge the rest of the Free Cities. The Tiger faction who originate from the "old blood" and favor war and conquest of the Free Cities, would have the power to challenge the ruling Elephant faction who favor trade. Tywin had advised Aerys in the past to stay neutral in Volantis' war with Myr and Tyrosh. Aegon himself flew Balerion against Volantis.



Near the end, even the future Conqueror, the still-young Aegon Targaryen, became involved in the struggle. His ancestors had long looked east, but his attention from an early age had been turned westward. Still, when Pentos and Tyrosh approached him, inviting him to join a grand alliance against Volantis, he listened. And for reasons unknown to this day, he chose to heed their call...to a point. Mounting the Black Dread, it is said that he flew to the east, meeting with the Prince of Pentos and the magisters of the Free City, and from there flew Balerion to Lys in time to set ablaze a Volantene fleet that was preparing to invade that Free City.  The World of Ice and Fire - Ancient History: The Doom of Valyria

Whatever these "unknown reasons" were,  Aegon's alliance with Pentos and Tyrosh 300 years ago meant that Volantis has been ruled by the Elephant faction ever since and trade flourished.

"The tigers held sway for almost a century after the Doom of Valyria. For a time they were successful. A Volantene fleet took Lys and a Volantene army captured Myr, and for two generations all three cities were ruled from within the Black Walls. That ended when the tigers tried to swallow Tyrosh. Pentos came into the war on the Tyroshi side, along with the Westerosi Storm King. Braavos provided a Lyseni exile with a hundred warships, Aegon Targaryen flew forth from Dragonstone on the Black Dread, and Myr and Lys rose up in rebellion. The war left the Disputed Lands a waste, and freed Lys and Myr from the yoke. The tigers suffered other defeats as well. The fleet they sent to reclaim Valyria vanished in the Smoking Sea. Qohor and Norvos broke their power on the Rhoyne when the fire galleys fought on Dagger Lake. Out of the east came the Dothraki, driving smallfolk from their hovels and nobles from their estates, until only grass and ruins remained from the forest of Qohor to the headwaters of the Selhoru. After a century of war, Volantis found herself broken, bankrupt, and depopulated. It was then that the elephants rose up. They have held sway ever since. Some years the tigers elect a triarch, and some years they do not, but never more than one, so the elephants have ruled the city for three hundred years."  A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion IV

For Tywin and the Free Cities, Steffon Baratheon(of cherished memory) could not be allowed to find a Volantene bride for Rhaegar. But who could stop him?



The greatest, richest, and most powerful of the Nine Free cities are Braavos and Volantis. And there is a curious connection between the two, for in many ways they stand in opposition to one another. Braavos lies in the far north of Essos, and Volantis to the far south; Volantis is the oldest of the Free Cities, and Braavos the youngest; Braavos was founded by slaves, whilst Volantis is built upon their bones; Braavos's greatest might is at sea, whilst that of Volantis is upon the land. Yet both remain formidable powers, their histories deeply marked by the Freehold of Valyria.   The World of Ice and Fire - The Free Cities: Volantis

Braavos.

 The Volantenes were fond of boasting that the hundred isles of Braavos could be dropped into their deep harbor and drowned. A Dance with Dragons - The Merchants Man

Braavos may be small but it is mighty.

The youngest of the Nine Free Cities, Braavos is also the wealthiest, and in all likelihood the most powerful. Originally founded by escaped slaves, its humble beginnings were rooted in nothing more than a desire to be free. For a great part of its early history, its secret status made it of little consequence in the wider world. But in time it grew, eventually emerging as a power almost without rival.   
Neither prince nor king commands in Braavos, where the rule belongs to the Sealord, chosen by the city's magisters and keyholders from amongst the citizenry by a process as convoluted as it is arcane. From his vast waterside palace, the Sealord commands a fleet of warships second to none and a mercantile fleet whose purple hulls and purple sails have become a common sight throughout the known world.
Braavos was founded by fugitives from a large convoy of slave ships on its way from Valyria to a newly established colony in Sothoryos, who rose in a bloody rebellion, seized control of the ships on which they were being transported, and fled to "the far ends of the earth" to escape their erstwhile masters. Knowing they would be hunted, the slaves turned away from their intended destination and sailed north instead of south, seeking a refuge as far from Valyria and her vengeance as could be found.   The World of Ice and Fire - The Free Cities: Braavos


The wealth of Braavos comes from many sources

Today Braavos is one of the world's greatest ports and welcomes trading ships of all nations (save for slavers). Within the vast lagoon, Braavosi ships dock at the splendid Purple Harbor, located near the Sealord's Palace. Other vessels must use the port called the Ragman's Harbor, a poorer and rougher port by all accounts. Still, there is so much wealth to be had in Braavos that ships come from as far as Qarth and the Summer Isles to trade there. The World of Ice and Fire - The Free Cities: Braavos


But its true wealth and its true power comes from the Iron Bank

Braavos is also home to one of the most powerful banks in the world, whose roots stretch back to the beginnings of the city, when a few of the fugitives took to hiding such valuables as they had in an abandoned iron mine to keep them safe from thieves and pirates. As the city grew and prospered, the shafts and chambers of the mine began to fill. Rather than let their treasure sit idle in the earth, the wealthier Braavosi began to make loans to their less fortunate brethren.
Thus was born the Iron Bank of Braavos, whose renown (or infamy, to hear some tell it) now extends to every corner of the known world. Kings, princes, archons, triarchs, and merchants beyond count travel from the ends of the earth to seek loans from the heavily guarded vaults of the Iron Bank.
The Iron Bank will have its due, it is said. Those who borrow from the Braavosi and fail to repay their debts oft have cause to rue such folly, for the Bank has been known to topple lords and princes and has also been rumored to send assassins against those it cannot remove (though this has never been conclusively proved).   The World of Ice and Fire - The Free Cities: Braavos


As well as lending money to "Kings, princes archons, triarchs and merchants beyond count",The Iron Bank has the wealth and power to "topple lords and princes" if they dont have their due. If you do pay your debts in the agreed upon time and in the agreed upon amounts, the Iron bank can be a good friend to have...and a Lannister always pays his debts.

It was Tywin Lannister who settled the crown's dispute with the Braavosi (though without "making the Titan kneel," to the king's displeasure), by repaying the monies lent to Jaehaerys II with gold from Casterly Rock, thereby taking the debts upon himself.   The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

When Tywin payed the Crown's debt to the Iron Bank, he avoided  a lot of trouble on both sides of the dispute.

When the bank backed Stannis's claim, it was on the condition that Stannis pay the Crown's debt when he won the throne. It actually cost the Iron bank to claim back the money it was owed.

When Tywin payed back the crowns debt himself he may have gained some influence with the Iron Bank. That influence, together with a shared interest in stopping a Volantis/ Iron Throne alliance that would certainly upset the trade that Tywin had cultivated with the Free Cities at the begining of Aerys reign (and possibly add to the slave trade) could have been enough to sway the Iron Bank to stop any betrothal that Steffon sought for Rhaegar.

This could be easily done. The Iron bank lend money to everyone and no doubt many nobles in Volantis have debts with the bank. Calling in the debts of anyone considering the betrothal would be a subtle message that this was a mistake.


When he raised his head to look at her, his dark eyes were clouded with pain. Is that the gout? Arianne wondered. Or is it me? "A strange and subtle folk, the Volantenes," he muttered, as he put the elephant aside.   A Feast for Crows - The Princess In The Tower.



 Steffon's mission to find a bride for Rhaegar ended in tragedy and only led Aerys to deeper madness and paranoia,

The gods had other notions, however. Steffon Baratheon's mission ended in failure, and on his return from Volantis, his ship foundered and sank in Shipbreaker Bay, within sight of Storm's End. Lord Steffon and his wife were both drowned as their two elder sons watched from the castle walls. When word of their deaths reached King's Landing, King Aerys flew into a rage and told Grand Maester Pycelle that Tywin Lannister had somehow divined his royal intentions and arranged for Lord Baratheon's murder. "If I dismiss him as Hand, he will kill me, too," the king told the grand maester.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

But just because your paranoid doesn't mean your wrong all of the time. The circumstances in which Lord Steffon's ship went down are suspicious.

Why was Lord Steffon's ship in Shipbreaker bay?

Storm's End itself, looming over the great cliffs of Durran's Point and the treacherous rocks of Shipbreaker Bay, offers no safe anchorage for either warship or merchant craft...... The World of Ice and Fire - The Stormlands: The Men of the Stormlands

The landing beneath Storm's End is described in A Clash Of Kings,

A mouth yawned in the cliff, and it was that Davos steered for, as he had sixteen years before. The tunnel opened on a cavern under the castle, where the storm lords of old had built their landing. The passage was navigable only during high tide, and was never less than treacherous, but his smuggler ’s skills had not deserted him. Davos threaded their way deftly between the jagged rocks until the cave mouth loomed up before them. He let the waves carry them inside. They crashed around him, slamming the boat this way and that and soaking them to the skin. A half-seen finger of rock came rushing up out of the gloom, snarling foam, and Davos barely kept them off it with an oar Clash of Kings Davos II

This seems like an unnecessary risk to take for the Lord and Lady of Storm's End.

  Daemon Sand stepped up beside her. "Shipbreaker Bay can be perilous even on a fair summer's day. The safer way to Storm's End is overland."  - Arianne II The Winds Of Winter

There are safer places to land when returning to the Stormlands,

 South, beyond Shipbreaker Bay with its wild waters and treacherous rocks, lies Cape Wrath. The moist green tangle of the rainwood dominates the northern two-thirds of the cape. Farther south a broad plain opens up, rolling gently down to the Sea of Dorne, where numerous small fishing villages dot the shoreline. A thriving port and market, the Weeping Town (as it came to be known because it was where the body of the slain hero King Daeron I Targaryen returned to his kingdom after his murder in Dorne), stands here, and much of the region's trade passes through its harbor. - The World of Ice and Fire - The Stormlands

After Lord Steffon's failed mission to find a bride for Rhaegar, should he not have returned to King's Landing to tell the King why? Instead he seems to have been returning to Storm's End to bring home a fool he bought in Volantis.

The ship that sailed to Volantis, bore a name that should give pause when thinking of Aerys' mad ravings about Tywin arranging the murder of Steffon Baratheon.

 The storm came up suddenly, howling, and Shipbreaker Bay proved the truth of its name. The lord's two-masted galley Windproud broke up within sight of his castle. From its parapets his two eldest sons had watched as their father's ship was smashed against the rocks and swallowed by the waters. A hundred oarsmen and sailors went down with Lord Steffon Baratheon and his lady wife, and for days thereafter every tide left a fresh crop of swollen corpses on the strand below Storm's End.  A Clash of Kings - Prologue

And who are you, the proud lord said,
that I must bow so low?


Swords Of Ice And Fire

Male And Female In The Vale Of Arryn

Davos's Thumb

Aerys,Tywin And A Bride For Rhaegar

The Trident Has Three Heads

Who's Looking Through The Black Gate?

Coin Well Spent

Valonqar - High Valyrian Or Bastard Valyrian?

Brandon's Bastards































Sunday 16 December 2018

The Trident Has Three Heads.

Could "The dragon has three heads" be a reference to someone born of three bloodlines? 
One parent carrying two bloodlines and the other parent carrying only one. Joining to birth a child that would carry  three 'special' abilities.

A child that has pure dragon blood(blue), Warg blood (red) and Green dreamer blood
(green).

A Greenseer and a Dragonlord

This may be mirrored in the three forks of the Trident- Blue, Red and Green, flowing together to form the
main River Trident.


The three branches of the Trident give the riverlands their name: the Red Fork, colored by the mud and silt that tumbles down from the western mountains; the Green Fork, whose mossy waters emerge from the swamps of the Neck; and the Blue Fork, named for the purity of its sparkling, spring-fed flow. The World of Ice and Fire - The Riverlands




Blue fork- Blue blood - Pure bloodline

...the Blue Fork, named for the purity of its sparkling, spring-fed flow.  The World of Ice and Fire - The Riverlands

 First Bloodline - A child of Aerys and Rhaella-  Being brother and sister, would have pure Targaryen blood. The potential to hatch and control dragons along with potential "Dragon dreams"


Ser Barristan went on. “I saw your father and your mother wed as well. Forgive me, but
there was no fondness there, and the realm paid dearly for that, my queen.”
“Why did they wed if they did not love each other?”
“Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line.” A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys IV



The Green Fork - Greensight/Greendreamer Bloodline (not a greenseer)






"My brother dreams as other boys do, and those dreams might mean anything," Meera said, "but the green dreams are different."

"You're a greenseer."
"No," said Jojen, "only a boy who dreams. The greenseers were more than that. They were wargs as well, as you are, and the greatest of them could wear the skins of any beast that flies or swims or crawls, and could look through the eyes of the weirwoods as well, and see the truth that lies beneath the world.



Red Fork-  Skinchanger/Warg bloodline - 

Some of the children born to Rickard Stark were said to have "the wolfblood". 

 "Ah, Arya. You have a wildness in you, child. 'The wolf blood,' my father used to call it. 
Lyanna had a touch of it, and my brother Brandon more than a touch. It brought them both to an early grave."  A Game of Thrones - Arya II

Some have it more than others

The Walders might be scared of them, but the Starks had wolf blood. Old Nan told him so. 
"Though it is stronger in some than in others," she warnedA Clash of Kings - Bran I



Descendents of the marriage between Rickard and Lyarra would potentially  be wargs or potentially have prophetic green dreams or potentially both.  A Greenseer

"Only one man in a thousand is born a skinchanger," Lord Brynden said one day, after Bran had learned to fly, "and only one skinchanger in a thousand can be a greenseer."
"I thought the greenseers were the wizards of the children," Bran said. "The singers, I mean."
"In a sense. Those you call the children of the forest have eyes as golden as the sun, but once in a great while one is born amongst them with eyes as red as blood, or green as the moss on a tree in the heart of the forest. By these signs do the gods mark those they have chosen to receive the gift. The chosen ones are not robust, and their quick years upon the earth are few, for every song must have its balance. But once inside the wood they linger long indeed. 
A thousand eyes, a hundred skins, wisdom deep as the roots of ancient trees. Greenseers." 
A Dance with Dragons - Bran III



Some mention of Greenseer blood or Green blood in a prophecy could have been mistaken for the
Greenblood river in Dorne and could be the reason Rhaegar was married to Elia Martell .


Realizing this mistake, Rhaegar would need someone born from a known (or alleged)
Skinchanger and Green dreamer bloodline. Lyanna Stark's blood was a mixture of the second
and third heads of the dragon.



The Targaryen ability to ride (and hatch) dragons is augmented with prophetic "Dragon
dreams" similar to greendreams.

 Children born to Rhaegar and Lyanna would potentially have any of these abilities. Or all of
them.
A dragon with three heads.  A Dragon rider and a Greenseer

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV


The legends of Azor Ahai being reborn and The Prince that was Promised seem to be the same legend. Or at least the are interpreted by some as the same. 

Bran is a "byproduct" of one of the bloodlines that produced Jon Snow. The same blood that combined to birth the greenseeer potential in the Starks also produced Bran.

Could the Prince that was Promised be a byproduct of the rebirth of Azor Ahai?   A Harbinger?

Melisandre believes or at least claims that Stannis is Azor Ahai reborn. The promised prince.


 "It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?"


But Stannis is a king not a prince.  It just so happens that the same comet did herald the "birth"of a prince.

"MY LORDS!" he shouted, his voice booming off the rafters. "Here is what I say to these two kings!" He spat. "Renly Baratheon is nothing to me, nor Stannis neither. Why should they rule over me and mine, from some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne? What do they know of the Wall or the wolfswood or the barrows of the First Men? Even their gods are wrong. The Others take the Lannisters too, I've had a bellyful of them." He reached back over his shoulder and drew his immense two-handed greatsword. "Why shouldn't we rule ourselves again? It was the dragons we married, and the dragons are all dead!" He pointed at Robb with the blade. "There sits the only king I mean to bow my knee to, m'lords," he thundered. "The King in the North!A Game of Thrones - Catelyn XI



Near the end of A Game of Thrones,the final Catelyn chapter, Robb is declared the King in the North. This means Bran became a prince.

In the final Bran chapter, the comet is mentioned for the first time

"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky. A Game of Thrones - Bran VII


We dont know what the real prophecy of Azor Ahai is. We only know how the characters interpret the prophecy.


"I see them in my dreams, Sam. I see a red star bleeding in the sky. I still remember red. I see their shadows on the snow, hear the crack of leathern wings, feel their hot breath. My brothers dreamed of dragons too, and the dreams killed them, every one. Sam, we tremble on the cusp of half-remembered prophecies, of wonders and terrors that no man now living could hope to comprehend . . . or . . ."
"Or?" said Sam. A Feast for Crows - Samwell III

This prophecy or a version of it, may have been misinterpreted in Westeros before the Targaryens arrived.

If there was something that was interpreted as "Blue blood" or "pure blood" This may be why Craster "weds" his daughters and "gifts" his sons to the Others.

Blue blood is associated with the others

When he opened his eyes the Other's armor was running down its legs in rivulets as pale blue blood hissed and steamed around the black dragonglass dagger in its throat. It reached down with two bone-white hands to pull out the knife, but where its fingers touched the obsidian they smoked.  A Storm of Swords - Samwell I

 Night's King  was possibly (among others) a Flint or a Stark. Or a mixture of both.

"Some say he was a Bolton," Old Nan would always end. "Some say a Magnar out of Skagos, some say Umber, Flint, or Norrey. Some would have you think he was a Woodfoot, from them who ruled Bear Island before the ironmen came. He never was. He was a Stark, the brother of the man who brought him down." She always pinched Bran on the nose then, he would never forget it. "He was a Stark of Winterfell, and who can say? Mayhaps his name was Brandon. Mayhaps he slept in this very bed in this very room.A Storm of Swords - Bran IV


Was Night's King a Greenseer trying to fulfill an interpretation of this or a similar prophecy when he spied his Corpse Queen from atop the Wall?

A woman was his downfall; a woman glimpsed from atop the Wall, with skin as white as the moon and eyes like blue stars. Fearing nothing, he chased her and caught her and loved her, though her skin was cold as ice, and when he gave his seed to her he gave his soul as well.  A Storm of Swords - Bran IV

Was he a Greenseer trying to birth a child with this blue-eyed, blue-blooded woman?

 I know the prophecy." Marwyn turned his head and spat a gob of red phlegm onto the floor. "Not that I would trust it. Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time." He chewed a bit. "Still . . ."  A Feast for Crows - Samwell V



When Aemon hears about Dany and her dragons he has a revelation about the prophecy. 

 On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo's talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise!  A Feast for Crows - Samwell IV









the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. Feast for Crows - Samwell IV

Salt-

They called her Salty, since she'd come aboard at Saltpans, near the mouth of the Trident. It was as good a name as any, she supposed. A Feast for Crows - Arya I

Smoke-

 The next day, outside the smoking ruins of Harrenhal, King Aegon accepted an oath of fealty from Edmyn Tully, Lord of Riverrun, and named him Lord Paramount of the Trident. The World of Ice and Fire - The Reign of the Dragons: The Conquest



Born amidst Salt and Smoke 

The three forks of the Trident merge into one to form the main river. The River Trident flows out to sea between Saltpans  and Harrenhal. A castle that Aegon I left a smoking ruin.

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said.  A Feast for Crows - Samwell IV


"No one," she would answer, she who had been Arya of House Stark, Arya Underfoot, Arya Horseface. She had been Arry and Weasel too, and Squab and Salty, Nan the cupbearer, a grey mouse, a sheep, the ghost of Harrenhal . . . but not for true, not in her heart of hearts. In there she was Arya of Winterfell, the daughter of Lord Eddard Stark and Lady Catelyn, who had once had brothers named Robb and Bran and Rickon, a sister named Sansa, a direwolf called Nymeria, a half brother named Jon Snow. In there she was someone . . . but that was not the answer that he wanted. A Feast for Crows - Arya II


"It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. A Feast for Crows - Samwell IV

When  the comet was sighted and Robb was declared King in the North, as well as Bran becoming a prince,

 Arya became a princess.

(Unknowingly, Arya is the princess betrothed to the Elmar Frey.)
"My princess," he sobbed. "We've been dishonored, Aenys says. There was a bird from the Twins. My lord father says I'll need to marry someone else, or be a septon."
A stupid princess, she thought, that's nothing to cry over. "My brothers might be dead," she confided.  A Clash of Kings - Arya X

Swords Of Ice And Fire

Male And Female In The Vale Of Arryn

Who's Looking Through The Black Gate?

Aerys,Tywin And A Bride For Rhaegar

Davos's Thumb

Coin Well Spent

Valonqar - High Valyrian Or Bastard Valyrian?

Brandon's Bastards